The ‘BCG hypothesis' suggests that the Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine against tuberculosis limits the severity of COVID-19. We exploit the differential vaccination practices of East Germany and West Germany prior to reunification to test this hypothesis. Using a difference in regression discontinuities (RD-DD) design centred on the end of universal vaccination in the West, we find that differences in COVID-19 severity across cohorts in the East and West are insignificant or have the wrong sign. We document a sharp cross-sectional discontinuity in the severity of the disease, which we attribute to limited mobility across the long-gone border and which disappears when we control for social connectedness. Case and death data after the end of the first lockdown on 26 April does not display a discontinuity at the former border, suggesting that mobility (as opposed to BCG vaccination) played a major role during the initial outbreak.
%0 Journal Article
%1 bluhm_pinkovskiy_2022
%A Bluhm, Richard
%A Pinkovskiy, Maxim
%D 2021
%J The Econometrics Journal
%K BCG COVID-19 Commuting
%N 3
%P 353-376
%R 10.1093/ectj/utab006
%T The spread of COVID-19 and the BCG vaccine: A natural experiment in reunified Germany
%U https://doi.org/10.1093/ectj/utab006
%V 24
%X The ‘BCG hypothesis' suggests that the Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine against tuberculosis limits the severity of COVID-19. We exploit the differential vaccination practices of East Germany and West Germany prior to reunification to test this hypothesis. Using a difference in regression discontinuities (RD-DD) design centred on the end of universal vaccination in the West, we find that differences in COVID-19 severity across cohorts in the East and West are insignificant or have the wrong sign. We document a sharp cross-sectional discontinuity in the severity of the disease, which we attribute to limited mobility across the long-gone border and which disappears when we control for social connectedness. Case and death data after the end of the first lockdown on 26 April does not display a discontinuity at the former border, suggesting that mobility (as opposed to BCG vaccination) played a major role during the initial outbreak.
@article{bluhm_pinkovskiy_2022,
abstract = {The ‘BCG hypothesis' suggests that the Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine against tuberculosis limits the severity of COVID-19. We exploit the differential vaccination practices of East Germany and West Germany prior to reunification to test this hypothesis. Using a difference in regression discontinuities (RD-DD) design centred on the end of universal vaccination in the West, we find that differences in COVID-19 severity across cohorts in the East and West are insignificant or have the wrong sign. We document a sharp cross-sectional discontinuity in the severity of the disease, which we attribute to limited mobility across the long-gone border and which disappears when we control for social connectedness. Case and death data after the end of the first lockdown on 26 April does not display a discontinuity at the former border, suggesting that mobility (as opposed to BCG vaccination) played a major role during the initial outbreak.},
added-at = {2022-08-17T17:25:27.000+0200},
author = {Bluhm, Richard and Pinkovskiy, Maxim},
biburl = {https://puma.ub.uni-stuttgart.de/bibtex/2dee906f2fe4eec75948294c458839476/richardbluhm},
doi = {10.1093/ectj/utab006},
eprint = {https://academic.oup.com/ectj/article-pdf/24/3/353/40345995/utab006.pdf},
interhash = {76c6acc05020294fd7cb8448f9accea4},
intrahash = {dee906f2fe4eec75948294c458839476},
issn = {1368-4221},
journal = {The Econometrics Journal},
keywords = {BCG COVID-19 Commuting},
month = {05},
number = 3,
pages = {353-376},
timestamp = {2022-08-17T15:25:27.000+0200},
title = {The spread of COVID-19 and the BCG vaccine: A natural experiment in reunified Germany},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/ectj/utab006},
volume = 24,
year = 2021
}
