Abstract
In order to generate an empirical data set that is dependent on several loads for reliability or lifetime modeling in the most efficient way, one usually has to implement Accelerated Life Testing (ALT) through Design of Experiments (DOE). The Central Composite Design (CCD) is particularly suitable as one derivative of the Response Surface Methodology (RSM), which is generically performant but can also be efficiently adapted for extrapolation purposes. These become particularly relevant when the Response Surface Design (RSD) response is to be used for prediction at field level based on those End-of-Life (EoL) tests. Various methods for evaluating the prediction quality in terms of its variance and modified designs have been established so far, including the Variance Dispersion Graph (VDG) and the Fraction of Design Space (FDS) plot. However, for reliability engineering in particular, they did not allow direction-dependent assessments of the designs as in the case of extrapolation. Thus, a new variant of assessment tool for prediction, the Extrapolation Variance Graph (EVG), is presented here and its properties and strengths are demonstrated using exemplary configurations.
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