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Multiple Thermal Updraft Estimation and Observability Analysis

, , , and . Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, 43 (3): 490-503 (March 2020)
DOI: 10.2514/1.G004205

Abstract

This work presents a new approach to integrated localization and characterization of multiple thermal updrafts. A particle-filter-based method is proposed, which allows estimating position, strength, and spread of several thermals at once. To assess the achievable accuracy of an estimate, the Cramér–Rao lower bound for the specific filtering problem is evaluated. An analysis highlights how the most common flight patterns harm observability. Monte Carlo simulation results for a fixed-wing aircraft encountering several thermals showcase the unique ability of the proposed updraft estimator to localize multiple thermals rapidly. The mapping of a transient thermal cell is assessed with respect to an observability measure derived from the estimated Fisher information. Feasibility of the approach is demonstrated by evaluating real flight data of a glider aircraft circling thermal updrafts.

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