Low turnout and potential differences in party preferences between voters and non-voters may affect party vote shares at European Parliament (EP) elections. Of particular concern is the rise of Eurosceptic and populist parties, but scholars do not know whether these would benefit from increased voter mobilization. To address this gap, we simulate the party choices of non-voters at the 2009 and 2014EP elections. Contrary to analyses of turnout effects at national elections in multiparty systems, our simulations suggest that left-leaning and ideologically moderate parties would gain if turnout went up to levels observed at national general elections. And while there is some evidence that populist parties might have benefitted from higher turnout at the 2014 elections (but not in 2009), our findings do not support expectations that either Eurosceptic or Europhile parties’ vote share would be affected by higher turnout.
%0 Journal Article
%1 remerbollow2019partisan
%A Remer-Bollow, Uwe
%A Bernhagen, Patrick
%A Rose, Richard
%D 2019
%J Electoral Studies
%K Europa Euroskeptizismus Parteien Wahlbeteiligung Wahlen myown myownsend:unibiblio
%R 10.1016/j.electstud.2019.02.003
%T Partisan consequences of low turnout at elections to the European Parliament
%X Low turnout and potential differences in party preferences between voters and non-voters may affect party vote shares at European Parliament (EP) elections. Of particular concern is the rise of Eurosceptic and populist parties, but scholars do not know whether these would benefit from increased voter mobilization. To address this gap, we simulate the party choices of non-voters at the 2009 and 2014EP elections. Contrary to analyses of turnout effects at national elections in multiparty systems, our simulations suggest that left-leaning and ideologically moderate parties would gain if turnout went up to levels observed at national general elections. And while there is some evidence that populist parties might have benefitted from higher turnout at the 2014 elections (but not in 2009), our findings do not support expectations that either Eurosceptic or Europhile parties’ vote share would be affected by higher turnout.
@article{remerbollow2019partisan,
abstract = {Low turnout and potential differences in party preferences between voters and non-voters may affect party vote shares at European Parliament (EP) elections. Of particular concern is the rise of Eurosceptic and populist parties, but scholars do not know whether these would benefit from increased voter mobilization. To address this gap, we simulate the party choices of non-voters at the 2009 and 2014EP elections. Contrary to analyses of turnout effects at national elections in multiparty systems, our simulations suggest that left-leaning and ideologically moderate parties would gain if turnout went up to levels observed at national general elections. And while there is some evidence that populist parties might have benefitted from higher turnout at the 2014 elections (but not in 2009), our findings do not support expectations that either Eurosceptic or Europhile parties’ vote share would be affected by higher turnout.},
added-at = {2019-03-06T16:05:59.000+0100},
author = {Remer-Bollow, Uwe and Bernhagen, Patrick and Rose, Richard},
biburl = {https://puma.ub.uni-stuttgart.de/bibtex/2d1af11c76e431d9880a9bf06bbc94f7f/uweremer-bollow},
doi = {10.1016/j.electstud.2019.02.003},
interhash = {f361030f2f9bc93f792b6153b6ec26d4},
intrahash = {d1af11c76e431d9880a9bf06bbc94f7f},
issn = {0261-3794},
journal = {Electoral Studies},
keywords = {Europa Euroskeptizismus Parteien Wahlbeteiligung Wahlen myown myownsend:unibiblio},
language = {en},
timestamp = {2023-04-03T13:51:08.000+0200},
title = {Partisan consequences of low turnout at elections to the European Parliament},
year = 2019
}
