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ReLiNet: Stable and Explainable Multistep Prediction with Recurrent Linear Parameter Varying Networks

, , and . Proceedings of the Thirty-Second International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI 2023, 19th-25th August 2023, Macao, SAR, China, page 3461--3469. International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization, (August 2023)Main Track.
DOI: 10.24963/IJCAI.2023/385

Abstract

Multistep prediction models are essential for the simulation and model-predictive control of dynamical systems. Verifying the safety of such models is a multi-faceted problem requiring both system-theoretic guarantees as well as establishing trust with human users. In this work, we propose a novel approach, ReLiNet (Recurrent Linear Parameter Varying Network), to ensure safety for multistep prediction of dynamical systems. Our approach simplifies a recurrent neural network to a switched linear system that is constrained to guarantee exponential stability, which acts as a surrogate for safety from a system-theoretic perspective. Furthermore, ReLiNet’s computation can be reduced to a single linear model for each time step, resulting in predictions that are explainable by definition, thereby establishing trust from a human-centric perspective. Our quantitative experiments show that ReLiNet achieves prediction accuracy comparable to that of state-of-the-art recurrent neural networks, while achieving more faithful and robust explanations compared to the model-agnostic explanation method of LIME.

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